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Analysis snapshot 2026-08-26Market evidence 2026-08-22Static sample

Frozen production analysis; this page does not fetch live data. Owner, address, and parcel ID are removed; public-record geometry is retained. Screening only—not investment, legal, lending, or permitting advice. Read the methodology.

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The sample mirrors the signed-in analysis workspace. Open the recommended concept to inspect the representative pro forma and underwriting evidence behind the decision.

Where the sample rent comes from

The four-townhouse rental comparison uses $2,373/unit/month and shows a loss. The leading concept is the engine-ranked subdivision, priced from an assessed-derived acquisition estimate, not a seller’s asking price.

Published pooled rent model · Bellingham, WA · single-family rental cohort (sfr), weighted 40% 2-bedroom / 60% 3-bedroom. No geographic proxy. This is a modeled asking-rent benchmark, not achieved rent or a townhouse-only comp set. Vacancy is a separate model assumption; listing counts are not vacancy rates.

Townhouse rental evidence: 23 of 23 canonical checks pass. Risk inputs 7/7. Coverage describes available inputs, not project feasibility or investment safety. Lot-sale concepts do not model stabilized NOI or a capital-recovery timeline; unavailable metrics retain their reasons.

Evidence as of 2026-08-22 · Model be75be4bc5c2389a016f3b68d7a953300c12522144288c49c26be53a4163ad9e · Dataset pooled-v1:0117d873b8784f2a5d219b05c5da8da0

Analysis · bellingham
Representative Whatcom County parcel
SAMPLE-PARCEL · 13,068 sf
⬡ Residential Multi, Planned
Decision

Modeled opportunity — verify purchase basis

The stored scenario uses $67,452 as its purchase basis and indicates $157,030 of headroom at the modeled maximum bid.

Best development concept
Demolish + Subdivide
Lot sale is best
Why this decision

Pursue at the modeled basis because the $224,482 max bid is $157,030 above the $67,452 modeled basis. This is a screening snapshot rather than a current asking price; verify the purchase basis before acting.

$224,482
Max bid
The most you can pay for the property and still meet the selected return target.
Subdivision factor
$67,452
modeled basis
+$157,030
Bid headroom
Residual clears modeled basis
At modeled basis
Purchase basis: Stored scenario purchase basis ($67,452)
The acquisition cost used by the model, from the best available price source.
+$203k
Gross profit
221.6%
Margin on cost
Gross profit ÷ total development cost × 100. Strong: 15% or more. Viable: 5% to under 15%. Marginal: 0% to under 5%. Negative: below 0%.
—
Yield on cost
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
$294,400
Stabilized value
Estimated property value after construction and lease-up.
Subdivision factor
Parcel at a glance
Max building (zoning GFA)
26,136sf
Modeled envelope: 11,160 sf footprint
Footprint headroom: 6,534 sf
Lot coverage
0.0% of lot
0.0% of 50% allowed
Subdivision
2lots
✓ lot split
Purchase
$67k
assessed $63k
This 0.30-acre parcel supports up to 26,136 sf of new building (zoning max GFA) under Residential Multi, Planned. The modeled setback envelope is 11,160 sf of footprint. The top development concept is demolish + subdivide. The best case comes from selling the subdivided lots, with roughly $202,847 gross profit at 221.6% margin on cost, based on ~$200k raw lot value and Common x 1.00 marketability, less 20% subdivision discount. A verified subdivision layout supports 2 total lots under a lot split.
All scenarios considered15 concept families · 29 catalog scenarios with rationale
Development concepts are ranked by gross profit from the canonical pro forma. Unscored concepts are shown for rationale only and cannot open a fabricated pro forma. The no-development hold baseline is shown separately and is not ranked.
#1
Recommended · Lot sale is best
Demolish + Subdivide
+$202,847
221.6% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#2
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Build SFH (Keep Lot)
−$146,556
-18.2% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#3
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Demo + Subdivide + SFH
−$330,583
-17.0% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#4
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Build Townhouses (Keep Lot)
−$354,992
-15.5% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#5
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Demo + Subdivide + Townhouses
−$408,461
-8.5% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#6
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Build SFH + ADU (Keep Lot)
−$647,105
-39.3% margin · 1.2% YoC
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#7
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Demo + Subdivide + Apartments
−$3,211,366
-30.2% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
#8
Does not pencil · Doesn't pencil at ask
Build Apartments (Keep Lot)
−$3,540,219
-32.2% margin · YoC N/A
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
—
Not evaluated
Add ADU
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Add Apartments (Keep Existing)
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Subdivide
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Subdivide + ADU
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Build Cottages (Keep Lot)
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Build Mixed-Use (Keep Lot)
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
—
Not evaluated
Demo + Subdivide + SFH + ADU
Not evaluated
· The stored analysis does not contain enough eligibility evidence to classify this concept.
Detailed analysisSite, zoning, sensitivity, financing, capacity, and other concepts
Leading site riskUnknown
Utility evidence unavailable: Modeled connection allowances do not establish water or sewer capacity.
Parking0 / 0Parking evidence unavailable.
Modeled site-work allowance$0Screening model estimate; not a contractor bid.
UtilitiesUnknownUtility evidence unavailable; $0 modeled connection allowance.
Critical areasNo modeled constraintNo typed critical-area constraint is present in the current verified context.
Geometry/buildability proofHigh confidence17 of 17 canonical checks pass.

Screening evidence only. Modeled fees do not verify utility capacity; parcel-specific engineering and diligence remain required.

Value ladderScreening values
Prospective collateral stages; unavailable stages are not estimated.
As-is value$67,452Purchase basis proxy; not a current appraisal
As-complete value$320,000Gross value before disposition costs
As-stabilized valueNot applicableNot applicable to a sale exit
Construction LTVUnavailableLoan amount unavailable
Takeout LTVNot applicableNot applicable to a sale exit
Lender financeabilityScreening only
Unavailable: stabilized NOI is missing
Debt metricsUnavailable
Takeout equity requirementUnavailable
Risk-adjusted screening score88/100
Selection basis: Return-first
Policy v2Inputs 5/7medium coverage

Separate, unvalidated product-screening policy—not empirical risk, probability, financial advice, an appraisal, a sourced market fact, or a dollar haircut. It does not change the selected concept.

Return100/100
40% weight
STRONG margin on cost (15% or more).
Lender financeability0/100
10% weight
Missing stabilized NOI
Entitlement100/100
10% weight
by right approval basis.
Market support30/100
10% weight
Valuation uses documented fallback assumptions instead of current market evidence.
Construction complexity70/100
10% weight
Subdivision/site work without vertical construction.
Parking/site constraints100/100
10% weight
Canonical parking and site proof passes without a shortfall.
Time to recovery0/100
10% weight
Capital recovery timeline is unavailable.
Other modeled concepts3 more
Build SFH + ADU (Keep Lot)−$647,105 · -39.3% margin on cost · 1.2% YoC
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
Max bid Not supported
The most you can pay for the property and still meet the selected return target.
Residual below modeled basis
Demo + Subdivide + Apartments−$3,211,366 · -30.2% margin on cost · — YoC
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
Max bid Not supported
The most you can pay for the property and still meet the selected return target.
Residual below modeled basis
Build Apartments (Keep Lot)−$3,540,219 · -32.2% margin on cost · — YoC
Annual net operating income (NOI) divided by total development cost.
Max bid Not supported
The most you can pay for the property and still meet the selected return target.
Residual below modeled basis
Reference dataClosed-sale comps, nearby permit activity, zoning, property, and critical areas
Closed-sale comps
Zoning · Residential Multi, Planned
Max height45 ft
Max coverage50%
Setbacks (F·S·R)15′ · 5′ · 15′
Max stories4
Property
Parcel area13,068 sf
Land value$63,135
Improvement$0
Computed · Screening tool, not legal advice.
Captured site planDemolish + Subdivide — Sell Lots
Computed geometry
Landon AvenueLEGENDParcel boundarySetback envelopeSubdivision line030 ftN
13,068 sf parcel · Residential Multi, PlannedFrozen analysis · not a survey or permit approval

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